Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
